Voter sentiment is clearly against incumbents, as recently defeated Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) and Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV) can attest. What’s more, several incumbents are on the chopping block in Tuesday’s elections.

Polls bear that voter anger out as well. A new AP-AfG poll shows just 36% of voters want to re-elect their representative, while 53% want someone else. Those numbers are scary for any incumbent.

And while just one House Member has lost his re-nomination bid, several others have felt the electorate’s anger. It’s still early in the primary season — just 7 states have held primaries — but the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman notes that 16 incumbents have taken less than 70% in their contests. That’s a huge number, and a warning sign for any incumbent — both Dem and GOPer.

It will be difficult to top the 19 House incumbents who lost their primaries in ‘92, but it doesn’t take too much imagination to contemplate more than a handful of Members losing their renomination bids this cycle.

But while polls show the GOP ready to make huge gains, Dems argue that this anti-incumbent sentiment will break both ways, and may mitigate the advantage the GOP seems to have.

To back that up, Dems released a poll late last week showing Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) — of “you lie” fame — leading ‘08 nominee Rob Miller (D) 49%-34%. The survey was conducted for Miller’s campaign between May 3-6, and surveyed 501 likely voters.

Dems argue that trouble lurks for Wilson. In the poll, conducted by Anzalone-Liszt, 61% of voters who feel that the best way to change Congress is to throw out members of both parties who “aren’t listening to the people.” Meanwhile, just 31% of respondents in the Dem poll agreed that the best way to change Congress is to elect GOPers who will “stand up” to Pres. Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Dems believe Wilson’s early lead is built mainly on his huge name ID advantage. In the poll, 91% of voters knew who he was, while just 34% knew who Miller is, despite his competitive ‘08 race.

Miller will have the cash — he’s raised $2.2M this cycle, the bulk of which coming immediately after the “you lie” controversy — to convince voters that Wilson proved himself out of touch with his outburst during Obama’s health care speech and that he deserves to be punished for his district’s high unemployment rate.

In other words, Dems believe that a well-financed Miller can pin the blame for the economy on the GOP incumbent, despite the fact that Dems currently control all levels of government.

Considering Wilson defeated Miller by a closer 54%-46% margin in ‘08, Miller has a big hill to climb in this GOP-leaning CD in the fall. Miller’s impressive showing came from a huge African-American turnout for Pres. Obama in ‘08 (27% of residents in the district are African-American), and it’s difficult to imagine that dynamic shaping up again in ‘10.

Wilson knows he’s got some work to do, and has already begun airing TV ads that focus mainly on jobs. But he’s also got plenty of cash — he’s raised $3.8M this cycle — to convince already GOP-leaning voters to break his way this fall.

Dems don’t have many races where they’ll be on the offense, and it will take a good deal of work for this race to move up the ranks of vulnerable GOP seats.

If Dems are correct, however, and the anti-incumbent sentiment targets both parties in the fall, then Miller — and other outsider Dems — will have a chance.

But with several polls showing the GOP with a lead over Dems on the generic ballot, that edge should certainly give the party’s incumbents in GOP-leaning seats — like Wilson — an overwhelming advantage in the fall. And in wave elections, incumbents of the ascendent party generally are very safe. So Wilson, and most GOPers, should be in ok shape.

But if these rocky primaries are any indication, incumbents of both parties should prepare for a bumpy ride.